In “There Are Signs of Hope in Canada’s Housing Market. But Is It Time to Use the ‘B-Word’?”, Shantaé Campbell examines whether Canada’s four-year housing correction may finally be approaching its bottom.
Economists are not forecasting a strong recovery. They argue that the decline may simply be running out of momentum.
Several forces support this theory: borrowing costs have eased, incomes have increased, pandemic speculation has largely disappeared, and prices have already undergone a multi-year correction. National sales have also risen 7% from their March low.
Ben Rabidoux identifies another characteristic of past housing bottoms: sales remain deeply depressed while new construction and incoming supply dry up. This eventually allows demand and supply to rebalance.
Ontario is beginning to display these conditions. New listings fell 5.5% year over year in June, active listings declined 5.1%, and inventory tightened from 4.7 to 4.2 months. At the same time, single-family construction has fallen to historically low levels.
Halifax presents a different picture.
My two cents is that Halifax’s downturn arrived later because its boom lasted longer.
Although Halifax resale prices first peaked in 2022, housing demand and construction remained elevated throughout 2023 and 2024. Average home prices increased 2.8% in 2023, while resale prices during the first eight months of 2024 were 6.9% higher than during the same period in 2023. Halifax also recorded nearly 4,700 housing starts in each of those years.
Signs of normalization became clearer only toward the end of 2024. Provincial analysis now identifies two Halifax price peaks, one in 2022 and another in 2024. This suggests that Halifax experienced an extended and uneven cycle rather than the continuous four-year correction described nationally.
The June 2026 figures reinforce that difference. Across Nova Scotia, new listings increased 6.9% to 2,037. Active listings rose 10.3% to 5,405, while inventory expanded from 4.1 to 4.5 months.
Ontario’s supply is contracting. Nova Scotia’s is expanding.
Therefore, Halifax does not yet display the supply-constrained conditions normally associated with a market bottom. What we may be witnessing is the delayed unwinding of a boom that remained active longer than it did elsewhere.
Is Halifax nearing the bottom, or has its later correction only begun?
#Halifax #NovaScotia #Housing #RealEstate #Construction #Canada
