Hanif Bayat’s article argues that Canada’s housing correction remains unfinished, but its severity is concentrated in Ontario and British Columbia. National figures conceal major regional differences. Four and a half years after the 2022 peak, the central question is whether weaker prices represent an approaching bottom or another stage of decline.
The national benchmark reached $651,400 in September 2026, which Bayat places 22.5 per cent below its March 2022 high. Ontario stood 26.7 per cent below its peak, while B.C. was down 16.7 per cent. Both provinces had surrendered their 2023 recovery, undermining earlier confidence that the worst had passed.
Other provinces followed different paths. Alberta’s peak arrived later, in March 2025, while Quebec reached a record in April 2026. Bayat nevertheless sees fading momentum more broadly. He expects further weakness in Ontario and B.C., although he acknowledges competing forecasts of recovery. His position is cautious, not a prediction of uniform national collapse.
Supporting market data explain why the regional distinction matters. WOWA’s September comparison shows annual benchmark declines of 3.9 per cent in Ontario and 4.7 per cent in B.C. Meanwhile, Newfoundland and Labrador, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick recorded increases. These contrasting results show why a Canadian headline cannot reliably describe every homeowner’s experience or every buyer’s negotiating position.
Supply conditions reinforce that divide. WOWA reports 8.4 months of inventory in B.C., compared with 2.6 months in Manitoba. National inventory was 4.9 months. These figures describe substantially different competitive environments, although the national measure is seasonally adjusted and the provincial calculations are not. Broad national balance can coexist with considerable pressure on sellers in particular provinces and tighter availability elsewhere.
Ontario’s real estate association provides further evidence of weakness. September sales were 8.3 per cent below the previous year and 21 per cent below the ten-year September average. Its benchmark apartment price fell 6.2 per cent annually, compared with a 3.8 per cent decline for single-family homes. The slowdown therefore extends beyond changes in the mix of properties sold, while affecting housing categories differently.
The disagreement over 2027 is important. Desjardins forecasts approximately 2.4 per cent growth in Ontario’s average home price, describing a partial recovery rather than renewed strength. It expects sales to improve but remain below longer-term norms.
Bayat warns against mistaking seasonal improvement for a durable turnaround. He suggests watching whether annual losses narrow consistently, rather than declaring a bottom after a brief recovery. The distinction between evidence and prediction is particularly essential when reading these competing assessments. Substantial past losses do not guarantee further declines, while a temporary recovery does not establish lasting strength. The useful approach is to examine local prices, available supply and borrowing conditions together. A national percentage cannot determine the right price for a particular property, nor can any forecast establish when an individual household should buy or sell its home with confidence.
Implications for Halifax
Halifax should not be treated as a smaller version of Toronto or Vancouver. Halifax Partnership reports an average September 2026 selling price of $585,650, up 0.4 per cent annually, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio indicating balanced conditions. Resale housing and rental apartments nevertheless require separate assessments.
For tenants, easing rental conditions offer potential negotiating room, particularly in expensive new buildings. CMHC’s 2025 Halifax survey recorded a 2.7 per cent purpose-built vacancy rate, while average two-bedroom rent reached $1,826 and same-sample rents increased 6.7 per cent. Provincial statistics show Halifax’s average advertised two-bedroom rent reached $2,400 in the second quarter of 2026, up 5.3 per cent annually. These are historical survey results, not current asking rents. CMHC also found affordable units remained scarce and some landlords offered financial incentives: move-in bonus for new residents, free WIFI, free first month… On the other end, tenants should compare total costs, including utilities, parking and moving expenses, rather than assuming that additional vacancies guarantee cheaper housing.
For landlords, the implication is greater attention to competition and tenant retention. CMHC’s evidence of vacancies in newer buildings suggests that ambitious asking rents can prolong leasing. The practical response is to assess comparable units, budget for realistic vacancy and evaluate incentives against lost rental income. A reliable tenant may be more valuable than pursuing the highest advertised rent.
These are operational implications, not proof that Halifax apartment values must fall. An apartment building’s financial performance depends on collected rents, operating expenses, financing and vacancy. Owners should test weaker cash flow scenarios; tenants should distinguish ongoing savings from temporary promotions.
Halifax’s changing housing market offers an opportunity to build a healthier balance. More choice for tenants and a stronger focus on value and service from landlords can benefit both sides. Lasting progress will depend on continued construction and homes that people can afford. Can Halifax turn today’s easing into a more stable and welcoming housing market?
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